Your Guide to Picking the Winner of the Melbourne Cup
To most punters it is the yearly goal to be able to pick the Melbourne Cup winner. For a lot of people, it is the only bet they have for the year. For those of you who actually like to try and pick a horse other than using your lucky number, colour or Birthday I hope this helps.
Jockey Weights
What makes the Melbourne Cup so difficult to pick a winner in, is due to it being a handicap race. The best horses are given extra weight to carry to try and even up the race. You wouldn’t think an extra 3 – 5 kgs to carry when a horse weighs over 500kgs would make too much of difference but it certainly does when you are racing over 3200m.
Over the last twenty years only three horses have carried more than 55kgs to win and one them was probably the best of all time in Makybe Diva. In the last ten years only one horse in the good German Horse in Protectionist has achieved that carrying 56.5kgs. I personally don’t look at a horse carrying more than 53.5kgs unless they are clearly an exceptional horse. Further to that I am looking for a horse carrying between 51kg – 53kgs.
Barriers
A lot of people think barriers don’t matter that much in a Melbourne Cup considering the long 1200m run to the first corner. One thing I do know is that if you get trapped three – wide, it is pretty much all over for the horse. Over 3200m I don’t even like my horse being trapped two – wide. Ideally you need to get to the fence have good cover and have the horse relax as soon as possible to have any chance of running out a strong race.
There is no doubt a good Jockey can make a bad barrier draw look good and there are probably no better examples than some of the wins by Kerrin McEvoy, Glen Boss and Craig Williams. Over the last 20 years Kerrin McEvoy has ridden Melbourne Cup winners from Barrier 22 on Brew (49 kgs), barrier 17 on Almandin (52 kgs) and barrier 19 on Cross Counter (51 kgs).
Age and Gender
Over the last twenty years only two mares have won the race in Ethereal and the greatest of all time in Makybe Diva. The average age horse to win has been a five-year-old gelding. However, over the last three years they have been four-year-old males in Vow and Declare (52 kgs), Cross Counter (51 kgs) and Rekindling (51.5 kgs)
Jockey
There is no doubt the Jockey is critical in selecting your horse for the Melbourne Cup. Over the last twenty years Australian Jockeys have dominated with only three overseas Jockey’s being successful in Moore, Lemaire and Iwata. Michelle Payne has been the only female Jockey to win on The Prince of Penzance. Ms Jamie Kah certainly has a good chance on Prince of Arran. Glenn Boss and Kerrin McEvoy have won it three times with Damien Oliver and Corey Brown winning it twice.
Good Australian Jockeys like Blake Shinn, Craig Williams and Brett Prebble have also won the race. I am personally looking for a good horse with an experienced Australian Jockey who are cool under pressure. I also like Jockey’s who have good strike rate at Flemington.
Trainers
Bart Cummings was the cups king and horses owned by and trained for Lloyd Williams have been Melbourne Cup Royalty. Training a stayer and having them peak on the first Tuesday in November certainly takes a special skill. Irish Trainer Dermot Weld changed the landscape in Australia when he was able to win the Cup in 1993 with Vintage Crop and then again with Media Puzzle in 2002. Since then overseas horse trainers have been sending waves of horses over to win our great race.
When you look at the current great trainers of stayers in Australia, I think of Chris Waller, Robert Hickmott, Kris Lees, Ciaron Maher and Danny O’Brien. However, the European trainers in Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien and Charlie Fellowes will be very hard to beat. Covid-19 will no doubt be a great advantage to the Australian based horse trainers this year, with a lot of the European Trainers not able to come with a lot of their horses.
Breeding and Lead Up Races
Traditionally the Caufield Cup and Geelong Cups have been great form races going into a Melbourne Cup. But for the last ten years very few runners in the Caulfield Cup and gone on to win the Melbourne Cup. Media Puzzle in 2002 was the last horse to win the Geelong cup and go on and with the cup. Races like the Irish Derby, Epsom Derby, St Leger, Curragh Cup, Goodwood Cup and Ebor are great form races going into the cup as they are great staying races.
It is a lot easier for a horse to win a Melbourne Cup if they can make the field without having to win any gut – busting qualifying races four weeks prior going into the Cup. European trainers are very successful in placing their horse to win the Melbourne Cup without any lead up races in Australia. Overseas bred horses have a superior record when coming to staying races in Australia. Horses by: Galileo, Teofilo, Frankel and Camelot have a clear advantage. It is important to understand that usually more than half the field will not be able to run out a strong 3200m and horses with proven form over this distance gives you more confidence.
Wrapping up
There is nothing better to be able to brag to your mates that you have picked the winner of the cup and I hope the above can help you. I personally will be looking for a well-bred European horse down in the weights with a good jockey and trainer. I am leaning towards four-year-old, Tiger Moth by Galileo (52.5 kgs). He is trained by Aiden O’Brien and has three-time winner in Kerrin McEvoy onboard. My concern is that he has not run over 3200m before and that is a risk, but being by Galileo does give me some comfort. I am also very concerned with his barrier and I am banking on Kerrin McEvoy finding a good position in the race, which he has a very good proven record of doing.
I would love to see an Australian horse win it again like last year and I think our best chances are Surprise Baby and Very Elleegant. But I feel both are carrying just a bit too much weight. From the others I think Prince of Arran will have the run of the race and will be right in it. If he was carrying 1.5 kgs less weight he would have been my bet. Good luck everyone.
