We recently conducted a study of all the races in Townsville from September 1st 2022 to June 30th, 2023. We waited until after the Carnival was finished to try and only include the locally raced horses. The ten-month study was to identify which type of horses were the most successful and to create a guide for our owners.
Why Buy a Tried Horse?
Many trainers and owners buy tried horses as they can be racing within weeks, which can bring a quicker return on investment. However, it’s the price you pay for them and how many races you need to win to make a profit that is the key.
Ideally owners are looking for a horse that only needs to win one race to break even, however on most occasions you will need to win two races to make a profit. If the horse is lucky to be QTIS registered this can also make a big difference to prize money. There are now QTIS races for all aged horses in North Qld.
The below tables cover all horses that won these races whether they were locally bred and purchased as yearlings or purchased as tried horses from sales such as the Inglis Sales. (Please note this does not cover 2YO or 3YO races only) The races covered here are for all age racing.
Maiden Racing
| All Maidens | Bought from Vic | Bought from NSW | Bought from SEQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Only won 1 race |
66.6% |
40% |
100% |
20% |
|
Won two races or more |
33.3% |
60% |
|
80% |
The staggering highlight here was that overall, 66.6% of horses that won their maiden never went on to win another race. It is a very big step up from Maiden to Class One racing. The horses that were most successful were maidens that came from Brisbane Metro Class racing that could not win there. The Strong Victorian Provincial Form was also a standout. What was surprising was that the maidens from Provincial or Country NSW racing never won more than one race.
The key to buying a tried horse and especially a maiden is to see who beat them and how did they go after that. If the horse you are looking at was getting beaten by horses that never won another race, this is a big red flag. However, if the horses that have beaten the horse you are looking at have gone on to win more races or moved up to Metro Class Racing, this is a great guide. Ideally you are looking for a horse that has been racing at Metro Level and is not quite up to winning there.
A great example for us was when we bought Bondi Beau, as a maiden from Victoria. Bondi Beau only had Provincial Victorian form but in two of his races he was only narrowly beaten by horses that went on to win Stakes Races in Melbourne in Zac De Boss and Zou Dancer. Bondi Beau won seven races for us up here including four in his first six starts.
Class 1 Horses
| All Horses | Bought from Vic | Bought from NSW | Bought from SEQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Only won 1 race |
37% |
33.4% |
17% |
0% |
|
Won two races or more |
63% |
66.6% |
83% |
100% |
As mentioned above it is a big step up from Maiden Class to a Class 1 or BM 55 racing. For the horses that take that next step the return on investment is so much higher. Overall, 63% of the horses that won their Class 1 race then went on to win two or more. Class 1 Provincial NSW horses had a big turn around here with 83% of the horses going on to win two or more races. It goes to show how high the standard of racing is in Provincial NSW racing when you win one.
Class 1 horses that came from Brisbane Metro racing were also a standout with all of them going on to win more than one race. The Standard of Brisbane Metro racing has increased significantly over the last few years with the arrival of stables of Chris Waller, Kris Lees, Annabel Neasham and Lee Freedman. It is very hard to win there now on a Saturday.
The results show that buying a Class 1 horse from Provincial VIC, NSW or Brisbane Metro will get you better results than buying a maiden.
Class 2 & 3 Horses
| All Horses | Bought from Vic | Bought from NSW | Bought from SEQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Only won 1 race |
39% |
0% |
33.4% |
33.4% |
|
Won two races or more |
61% |
100% |
66.6% |
66.6% |
The results shown here are that Provincial Victorian horses that can win two to three races in that competition are extremely hard to beat in Townsville. All of them came up north and won more than 2 races. The horses from Provincial NSW and Brisbane also did well with 66.6% winning more than two races.
Class 5 & 6 Horses
| All Horses | Bought from Vic | Bought from NSW | Bought from SEQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Only won 1 race |
15% |
0% |
50% |
14% |
|
Won two races or more |
85% |
100% |
50% |
86% |
It goes to show how hard it can be for a horse to reach Class 5 or Class 6 level. But when they do, they are good horses with 85% of them going on to win two or more races after that. As above 100% of Class 5 or 6 horses that came from Victoria went on to win two or more races.
Brisbane Metro Class horses were also standouts with 86% going on to win two or more races. We like these horses as they are good mentally strong horses that can go on with it. Recently we purchased Circularity who was a Class 5 horse that was Brisbane Metro Class and had NSW Provincial Winning form. He arrived in Townsville in June and won three races for us very quickly before we sent him to the paddock.
In summarising you still need luck with injuries and good barriers, but the above guide does show how to make selecting horses at tried horse sales a little easier. It is also important that you purchase the horse at the right price and that you are making a profit when they win their second race.
New Horses Arriving
We currently have two tried horses available to race with Lindsay Hatch in our Townsville Stables
Ventura Ocean
Class 5 horse that has winning Brisbane Metro Form and Sydney Metro Form purchased for $10,000 at Inglis Sales
Going on above he has a high chance of winning two or more races up here and being a profitable horse for us. His form is very similar to Circularity.
What we think of him
Beauty Boom
Four-Year-old Class 2 QTIS Sprinter with Brisbane Metro form. He has won two races with five top three finishes from only seven starts. Purchased for $15,000 at Inglis sales.
He ticks all the boxes of a Class 2 horse above including the horse that beat him went on to win their next start too. He has the bonus of being QTIS where he can race in $30,000 races up here.
